Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 showed Democrats that their ‘Blue Wall’ in PA, MI, and WI wasn’t so fortified after all. For the first time since 1988, a Republican presidential candidate carried the Midwestern states that had been the bulwark to what Dems had thought was a structural advantage in the Electoral College.
Since that night, Jared Kamrass of Cincinnati, OH notes that Dems have worked to find new paths to victory in these high white-working class states. Keeping all three governor’s mansions and flipping legislative chambers in MI and PA in 2022 exceeded expectations for even the most optimistic Dem. But it was last night in Wisconsin where a state Supreme Court race was the culmination of nearly 8 years of work to rebuild.
Left-leaning local judge Janet Protasiewicz decisively beat former high court judge Dan Kelly to give Dems a 4-3 majority on the Court. With gerrymandered maps, abortion restrictions, and threats to executive power all expected to be argued in front of the court, Wisconsin is poised to join MI and PA as having fair maps, access to abortion, and a reigned in legislature.
The common denominator has been the inroads Dems have made with white college educated voters, particularly in the suburbs. These trends had begun during the Trump presidency but have accelerated with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
As the 2024 Presidential Election begins in earnest, Jared Kamrass believes these trends are likely to continue, especially if the now-indicted Trump is the GOP nominee. While fast-growing Sun Belt states such as Arizona and Georgia are now critical to the Dems electoral path moving forward, and party strategists are salivating over demographic trends in North Carolina and Texas, the party has now demonstrated successful alternate paths to victory in the Blue Wall states that, if sustainable, will make Republican’s options in the Electoral College exceedingly slim.
